Saturday 19 July 2014

MH17 - The worst possible scenario

For those who died aboard flight MH17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, I am sure the worst possible scenario has already been realised.

None can imagine the pure horror that these poor people went through as their seats were torn from the fuselage and they plummeted 33000 feet, not only alive but very likely still conscious, for a full eight minutes.

And what of the friends and family? They can only pray that their son, daughter, father, mother or whoever was one of the ”lucky” ones who died instantly as the missile hit.

And yet, for the rest of us, far, far worse could yet be still to come.

The perpetrator of this crime, this act of terrorism, this act of war, must be brought to justice.  It now seems to be an almost certainty that pro-Russian rebels shot the plane down. But just who is the perpetrator? Who is tried and, somewhat unsatisfactorily, sent to jail or the rope? 
The soldier who pulled the trigger? Who took orders from his immediate superior? Who took orders from his? Who took orders from the leader of the rebels? Who was, in turn, given the power, blessing and wherewithal to carry out this act by the man who supplied the weapon?  Ultimately the real villain of the piece becomes the terrifying monster who is the bastard Vladimir Putin.

So where do the West go from here?
Or next step is to impose sanctions.  But to what end?  What do we hope to achieve with these?  And whose economy suffers more as a result of them?  Remember that Russia controls the gas pipeline to Europe.

So the sanctions achieve nothing.   But that in itself is no surprise.  To quote The Bard: "nothing will come of nothing" .  Our next step (to achieve what?): Drone support to the Ukraine government.

Russia supplies the rebels with the means to negate these drones.  So,  (hoping to achieve what exactly?), the West gives full air support.  Russia responds with the Same.

So,  you know where this is going - or next futile step is ground troops.  Russia has many times our capacity in this area, plus Ukraine is on the doorstep.  They overwhelm the West.

Who gets pissed off the most first?  Does Putin say "fuck this, I've had enough of these irritating bastards"  or do Obama, Cameron, et al say "too many casualties but we can't back down now"

It matters not.  The Button is pressed and all hell breaks loose.

Let us all pray that, on this occasion, my opinion is very wrong.  Putin should spend the rest of his miserable days in a Siberian labour camp,  but, at the same time, let us hope that pragmatism prevails and the West exercise restraint.

I would rather see one evil bastard go scot free than see the world (and me) be vaporised or die of rad sickness.

Whatever happens, hold onto your hats. From the likes of the fate of MH17 world wars start.  It's gonna be a bumpy ride.  Let's hope we get to the end of the road in one piece.

Or even one peace.

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